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<p>　　生意社3月12日訊　全國人大代表、齊魯石化總經理常振勇日前透露，在自貿區談判中，中東、日本、韓國等都要求石化產品關稅降為零，一旦接受將對國內石化產業的生存和發展產生重大影響，因此他建議自貿區談判應高度重視石化產業安全。</p><p>　　截至2009年底，我國已與31個國家和地區建立了14個自貿區，其中已生效的自貿協定8個，正在談判的自貿區6個。在已生效的中國-東盟自貿區協議中，絕大多數<a href='#' target='_blank'>石油</a>石化產品進口關稅將在2010年前后降為零。</p><p>　　同時，中國-海合會自貿區協議已談判多年，我國內地和臺灣地區ECFA(兩岸經濟合作框架協議)商談也在推進，下一步還將推進中-韓、中-日等自貿區談判，另有不少自貿區的談判意向。</p><p>　　“在這些談判中，對方都提出了石化產品關稅降為零的要求。”常振勇認為，由于上述國家和地區是我國石化產品進口的主要來源，一旦接受這些要求，將對國內石化產業的生存和發展產生重大影響。</p><p>　　“尤其是擁有絕對成本優勢的中東石化產品大量進入我國，將給國內石化產業發展帶來‘雪上加霜’的影響，后果不堪設想。”常振勇說，“中東(海合會)石化工業發展迅猛，大量石化產品嚴重過剩，將對我國石化產品市場帶來巨大沖擊。”</p><p>　　中東(海合會)地區憑借原料低成本優勢，已成為世界乙烯工業投資最集中的地區。據報道，預計到2015年，海合會國家的聚乙烯、乙二醇和苯乙烯凈出口量將比2008年分別增長97%、26%和144%；聚丙烯的凈出口量將達到2008年的3倍。</p><p>　　鑒于歐美、韓日等海合會國家的傳統出口市場較為成熟、需求增量小、產品檔次高，我國將是其大量過剩產品的主要目標市場，這將對國內石化產品市場造成巨大沖擊。</p><p>　　從近年來的實際情況看，海合會國家的石化產品低價拋售已對我國石化市場格局造成重大影響，其中2009年聚乙烯、聚丙烯和乙二醇的進口增幅分別達到49%、102%和47%，產品價格普遍明顯低于當期市場價。</p><p>　　常振勇認為，如果接受這些石油石化產品零關稅協議，國內石化產業及相關產業發展將受到嚴重抑制，近半數乙烯裝置能力可能停產，與之相關的上游煉廠生產、下游產品加工及勞動就業等也將受到嚴重影響。</p><p>　　海合會國家乙烯工業的發展主要是以當地廉價而豐富的天然氣及輕烴為原料，加上裝置規模大、技術水平高(與跨國公司合資)，在全球范圍內具有明顯的競爭優勢。中東地區的乙烯、聚乙烯、乙二醇生產成本僅為我國的20%-30%，聚丙烯成本稍高但也只有我國的75%。</p><p>　　“若實行石化產品零關稅，必將助推海合會石化產品大量進入我國市場。”常振勇透露，據有關部門預測，到2015年中東地區聚乙烯、乙二醇、聚丙烯、精對苯二甲酸等石化產品對我國的出口量合計將可能達到1682萬噸，比2008年增長3.5倍。</p><p>　　分析認為，以上情況的發生將導致國內乙烯裝置開工率降至54%左右，使國內46%的乙烯產能(1000多萬噸/年)、數千億元資產閑置，并可能引發為其提供原料的配套煉油能力約1.5億噸/年無法正常生產(按石腦油的乙烯收率32%、煉廠石腦油產率11%計)。</p><p>　　“生產能力的閑置將引發勞動就業受到嚴重影響。”常振勇透露，僅中國石化就可能影響33萬人員就業和生活保障。此外，相關配套服務業、下游產品加工業也將受到巨大影響。據統計，投資100億元的乙烯項目將帶動600億元相關配套產業的發展。因此，對相關產業的影響將比對乙烯產業的影響大6倍。</p><p>　　常振勇表示，相關配套服務業和下游企業的發展離不開國內石化產業的帶動。國內石化產業一旦失去主導地位，下游企業的原料供應安全和價格決定權將被進口產品控制，下游企業將遭受深遠的負面影響。</p><p>　　“如果實行石化產品零關稅，國內石化企業的利潤空間將受到嚴重擠壓，石化產業將陷入全面虧損，造成國家財政收入的巨大損失。”常振勇透露，據不完全測算，因海合會石化產品大量進口，2015年國內石化產業當年的銷售收入將損失約2130億元(假設石化產品價格、人民幣兌美元匯率保持2008年水平不變)，國家財政收入將減少156億元，其中關稅收入減少96億元、增值稅減少60億元。</p><p>　　“如果在自貿區談判中無條件接受石化產品零關稅的要求，將使我國石化產業腹背受敵，影響國內石化產業安全。”常振勇建議，從我國石化產業實際出發，在有關自貿區尤其是中國-海合會自貿區談判中，堅持合理的談判底線和補償方案。</p><p>　　《兩會訪談錄》由經濟觀察網和新浪財經共同推出，將在兩會期間，與兩會代表對話，傾聽兩會聲音，反映民生問題。</p> 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